<p>You seem to be part-way through developing a heuristic method for prediction using implicit assumptions based on your knowledge of what the data represent &amp; how they've been collected, &amp; on patterns observed over the hundreds of data sets; &amp; to be asking either how the method can be refined, or what other method might be appropriate. It sounds very interesting, but it's concerning that my knee-jerk prediction for the first example is quite different from yours&mdash;I'd've said the first event of the week happened earlier than usual on Tuesday &amp; we shouldn't expect another till Wednesday now, whereas you're still pretty confident that another event will occur on Tuesday evening.</p>

<p>Because you're very close to the problem it might appear that people are being wilfully obtuse when they say they don't understand your question. Try to step back from it a bit, &amp; think about how to frame it for a new-comer.  See <a href="https://stats.meta.stackexchange.com/q/3134/17230">How can we encourage askers to provide context?</a> for the importance of providing context. What <em>are</em> the events? What do you know about them that could aid prediction? What have you learnt from looking at the data-sets? Can you share the data? What assumptions have you made &amp; why? When are you making predictions? What are you going to do with them? How are you going to test different approaches? What do you expect from an answer?</p>

<p>If the question had been left open in its current state there'd be a real risk that fools rush in&mdash;&amp; any of us could be among those fools on different occasions&mdash;with a different set of implicit assumptions, leading to a mare's nest of conflicting answers.</p>

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<p>I said you seem to be part-way through developing a heuristic method for prediction because that's what I took the part of your question where you write "I need to extract some information like [...]" &amp; then go on to describe aggregating events by day to be about. (It comes out of the blue: again, step back, spell things out for your readers.)</p>

<p>I wouldn't make too much of my having got one thing right in one case. In fact I was making up a context when I thought about it&mdash;withdrawing money from a cash machine. Think how much the context you have included helps: just the word "users" suggests that day of the week &amp; time of the day might be relevant (&amp; that the pattern of events might be different at weekends &amp; holidays); but not phase of the moon (you didn't write "anglers" or "werewolves").</p>

<p>Several answers using different approaches to answer the same question would be a good thing; several answers using different approaches to answer different questions (i.e. different interpretations of yours) would be a bad thing. Trust us on this: it's happened often enough.</p>
